Is Donald J. Trump Machiavellian enough to turn off his inner voice in a desperate attempt to win the 2020 Presidential Election? Does he have the emotional intelligence to simply stop talking his way out of reelection?

For the most powerful politician in the world these questions are critical considerations. Yet, Candidate Trump is a mess. He clearly has no one around him willing to stand up and simply say, “Stop…stop now, Mr. President!”

The only way (it seems outside a Constitutional crisis over mail-in voting) to avoid defeat is to exude leadership on defeating COVID-19 through bold actions. The US ineptitude at the federal level has been legion to date with more than 4.3 million confirmed Coronavirus cases, some 150,000 people dead, and a ham-handed testing and tracing program. Time is against the president with less than 100 days before the election.

But, Trump still has options…

…To paraphrase James Carville:

“It’s the pandemic, stupid!”

Sound Like a Wartime President

The equations are straightforward right now – voters hate Trump’s response to the pandemic. They roundly disapprove of how he has handled the crisis. Trump currently trails in polls in several key battleground states (i.e. Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania) that he must win if he hopes to emerge victorious in the Electoral College. However, a closer look at many of these surveys reveals that the results fall within the margin of error that could make them much closer than they appear on first glance.

The second half of the 2020 Presidential election equation is that people are fairly ho-hum about Joe Biden. His poll results (right now) are derived more-or-less by being the anti-Trump. Unlike his counterpart, Biden is staying relatively quiet. Less talk equals less chance that he might let loose with one of his many verbal ticks or miscues.

Let’s be realistic, though when it comes to politics. Many Americans have short-term memories. If President Trump righted the course and could realistically claim victory over COVID-19, he would probably be rewarded, despite the significant flaws and missteps made over many months.

President Trump could begin challenging his fate if he simply started speaking like a leader. Of course, as possibly the least actualized person on the planet, the counter is that he can’t do it...could never show this kind of transformation. Yet, a possible second term hangs in the balance. In an “It’s the pandemic, stupid!” world, the president of the nation leading the world in COVID-19 outbreaks must talk like a leader. His words matter, so a different kind of oratory may provide hope and inspiration for all Americans.

Shut it Down – Shut it, Shut it Down!

Bold, decisive leadership requires that President Trump do the one thing he is most dead-set against—completely shut down the country. Not only would it require him to sound presidential, but it would oblige that he act presidential.

With one courageous proclamation, Trump would immediately change the trajectory of his presidency:

“Today, following the guidance of the scientific community and my medical experts, as well as bipartisan leadership nationally, we are shutting down the nation, instituting mandatory masks in all indoor spaces and outdoors when people are unable to socially-distance, and banning nonessential interstate travel. All schools will be online for the rest of 2020, which will enable us to plan for a successful 2021.”

The scientific evidence and examples from many European and Asian nations is that by six to eight weeks of shutting down the nation, the US could flatten the virus to the point that testing and tracing could isolate and possibly squelch hotspots as they arise.

The follow-up:

“I realize that we are asking a great deal of Americans, but these critical steps are the only way that we can defeat COVID-19. After six to eight weeks, we will have a stronger nation and be fully prepared to re-launch the economy. America will also be much closer to a vaccine.”

The Outcome

While the call for shutting down the nation might seem like the last thing in the world that Trump would advocate, the move would finally demonstrate that the president is putting the nation’s concerns before his own seemingly impulsive thoughts and reactions. A total shutdown would reveal Trump as willing to place the lives of Americans foremost. One again, though, the kind of decisions that Candidate Trump must make to win the 2020 election are diametrically in opposition to what President Trump has done since the pandemic broke out.

Does he have the maturity as a leader to change course? Possible options are dropping by the day. As we hurtle toward November a chance for a Hail Mary victory are growing slimmer and slimmer.

A popular political cartoon representing how the nation has been crushed under the weight of the Teapot Dome scandals.

Widely considered the “best dressed man in Washington,” Jess Smith served as Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty’s confidante, friend, nurse, and bagman for the mountains of cash he was able to extort from America’s bootleg barons. When he committed… — Widely considered the “best dressed man in Washington,” Jess Smith served as Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty’s confidante, friend, nurse, and bagman for the mountains of cash he was able to extort from America’s bootleg barons. When he committed suicide on May 30, 1923, it ended what little hope Remus had from staying out of jail.

The Bourbon King offers a window into government corruption at the highest levels. Any lessons we can learn for understanding today’s political scene?

Presidential corruption is a delicate matter. Incredibly partisan, one side sees something that the other does not. History helps sort out details and brings new evidence to light, but then how do we deal with scandal as it takes place?

George Remus built a far-reaching bribery network that stretched from the suburban Cincinnati police to the Harding White House. He virtually taught Newport, Kentucky, about graft, which enabled the city to become a model for corruption and vice. Decades later, the mafia would move into Newport and see the city as a model for Las Vegas.

Much of the corruption Remus took advantage of came directly from the Prohibition Bureau, particularly as enforcement began. At every level, “Prohis" (the nickname given to agents tasked with enforcing Prohibition) fell to corruption and payoffs.

For example, many leaders at the state level issued whiskey certificates—paper documents that gave the holder the ability to sell liquor legally to pharmacies, hospitals, doctors, and others for “medicinal usage”—for a hefty fee.

“They received considerations,” Remus explained. “Otherwise those withdrawals would never have come to the respective distilleries that I was owner of.”

As a result of the permutations, trust evaporated and criminality ruled, particularly as officials in the Harding administration learned that they could be so dishonest.

Much of the underhanded maneuvers originated in Attorney General Harry M. Daugherty’s office and ran through Jess Smith, his bon vivant friend and confidante. Jess ran interference for Daugherty and his Ohio cronies linked to Harding’s White House. The money changed hands, which fit with Remus’s worldview of how men acted when they had a deal, but he had no guarantee that Smith could do what he said.

Amidst this setting, and with his own loose lips, could Remus possibly keep his central bribe secret? A journalist reported that he heard a rumor around town about George, explaining, “He was once heard to boast that he was immune from prosecution because he had the ear of the private secretary of a cabinet officer.”

The bribery network soon crumbled…

On May 30, 1923, Jess startled awake in the middle of the night. He drew a pistol from a bedside drawer, stumbled to the bathroom, and lay down on the floor. Positing his head on the side of a wastebasket, Jess put the revolver to his temple and pulled the trigger.

Smith killed himself a little more than two months before the shocking death of Warren G. Harding, who declined quickly on a trip out West and ultimately passed away on August 2, 1923, only 57 years old.

The Ohioan was wildly popular at the time and mourners lined the train route that brought the dead president back to the nation’s capital. Only after his death would the full weight of his scandal-ridden administration become unraveled by a series of congressional investigatory committees and reporters hot on the trail of his Cabinet members and their cronies, many who seemed to specialize in corruption. For George, the deaths of Smith and Harding left him with little hope. Worse, the tragedies severed his ties to Daugherty.

“Misfortune came fast, suddenly,” Remus said. “Jess Smith was found dead in his bathroom. President Harding died. The Senate called for the impeachment of Harry Daugherty. The game was over. I had no place to turn.”

Shortly after President Harding died in office, many scandals came to light that revealed the full extent of his administration’s corruption. However, Harding was given a kind of free pass.

Today, with President Donald Trump, the accusations regarding corruption are much more vocal and public. Events that transpired in Harding’s era demonstrated how bad actors could really line their own pockets by using their power in various schemes.

Modern presidents are not given the same benefit of the doubt. The amplification of outrage based on social media and a more pervasive news cycle means that cries of government corruption are going to be louder and shriller.

The challenge for us today is attempting to determine how much of the dishonesty is real and what might be condensed down to partisanship. Calvin Coolidge — Harding’s successor — watched a series of Congressional investigations into corruption by Harding Cabinet members. He constantly worried about how those spectacles would influence voters’ minds in the 1928 election.

As long as the economy boomed, observers gave Harding and Coolidge a free pass. At the time, the scandals did not topple their administrations.

Today, however, the notion of a free pass is laughable as a president’s every move is scrutinized by a highly-partisan citizenship.

The media—crippled by the financial crisis that has left the industry in shambles over the last two decades—responds by chasing every sensational detail, forced to feed the bile back to consumers, hoping that their anger will result in advertising dollars and measured in online “impressions.”

The corruption of the Harding administration—with George Remus at its center—provides a case study in corruption by White House subordinates who realized how swiftly they could fleece the system. Today, are we too distracted by the daily shouting to scrutinize the details as they unfold just below the surface?